Catalysts on the Horizon – Part 3

5. The fourth quarter of mid-term election years is almost always favorable for stocks. The market’s reaction to mid-term elections, as uncertainty fades, has almost always been positive, with fourth quarter gains averaging 8% in mid-term election years. So far, the stock market performance in 2010 has tracked the typical pattern for U.S. stocks in mid-term election years, albeit with a bit more than the usual volatility.

6. If history is any guide, the disappointingly soft economic data over the past few months may soon begin to firm. Looking back over the past 60 years, about one year after the start of every recovery a soft spot emerges. Some closely watched indicators of growth are likely to be near the bottom of their typical soft spot-driven decline and poised for a rebound. As the data begins to firm later this year, the typical pattern of recovery may continue to unfold as it did in the post-recession recovery years of 2003 and 2004 when a late year rally in 2004 resulted in gains for the year.
Unfortunately, all of these potential catalysts are a month or more away while the economic data continues to disappoint.

The volatility that has defined this year is likely to continue with ongoing losses to be recouped by a late-year rally. In the meantime, we continue to find yield-producing investments attractive.

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